October 31, 2013

"Free" Money: NFL Picks

Oh SNAP! Rough week for the nerd. Had the money line right on the Lions and Seahawks, but being greedy and going for the spread sunk me. Got a push on the chiefs o/u as well.

Season record dropped to: 3-4-1, free money in question!




NFL Picks Week 9:

Bengals -3 @ Miami: Dalton has been killing it, especially with his suddenly deeper receiving core. Some of the luster has been knocked off of the Miami shine with Tannehill's questionable play of late. Remember the is Tannehill elite questions? Also this business with the starting O-lineman leaving the team suddenly last night because of a prank is strange. Locker room disarray? Bengals take their show on the road fo sho.

@ Raiders -2.5 vs. Eagles: Not hard to root against the Eagles here with their QB fustercluck and complicated offense. Raiders also benefiting from the circadian rhythm principle here.

Saints -6 @ Jets: NO has been Eazy Breezy Beautiful, and will almost certainly take an early lead on the road, forcing Geno to do a lot...enough said.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless"

Gross!



Well as gross as it is that the Sox are champs again, I can at least get behind Koji. He is one crafty closer, has an adorable little kid (see above), and most importantly didn't have a disgusting beard. Don't be racist, he is fully capable of growing a beard:


He was just cool enough not to. Gotta say that Sox/Dodgers trade seems even crazier now.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."

October 27, 2013

Jim Schwartz Headphone Spike Now a Thing


Remember Schwartz spiking his headphones after the Lions vs. Redskins game? Well after the EPIC comeback victory over America's Team, Schwartz officially decided to make that his thing. Also:


"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."



Clay Buchholz: WTF?


That is what he looks like. Should we prophylactically call the sex offender registry? Also Jake Peavey looks like Jeremy Renner.


Just Sayin.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."


October 26, 2013

Tweet of the Day: Phil Jackson vs. Kendrick Lamar


That's right Phil vs. Kendrick. In response to Kendrick's line in "Control:" "If Phil Jackson came back, still coachin' me. I'm uncoachable, I'm unsociable." The Zen master of course could not let that slide:

“@KendrickLamar It’s okay to be cocky and sure, but we all need somebody to lean on. Let’s just call it mentoring.”

“That’s the wonderful world of Twitter, you can communicate with people who are complete out of your range of influence and your social grouping. The connection between rap and basketball is so deep, that many of the people who tweet back and forth to me were saying, ‘You got to come back at [Kendrick] Lamar after he gives you this.’” Says Jackson in the above interview.

Also Kendrick Lamar is Nick Young's Cousin.....WHAAAAAT?!?!?!

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."

October 22, 2013

"Free" Money: NFL Picks



Awwww yaaahhhhh: went 1 for 3 this weekend. Chiefs almost covered, but their fumble return TD was a foot short. Patriots almost got the push in OT, but then their literal push lost the game (weird call), at least the always reliable NY Giants dominated.

Season Record: 3-2, still free money!

Week 8:

Seahawks +10 @ Rams: Gonna take a chance with the hawks on the road. Sure their offense doesn't travel, but would you bet against Seattle's D taking it to Kellen Clemons? Sad to see Bradford's career in jeapordy without him ever getting a shot to ball.

Lions -3 vs. Dallas: Lions at home, megatron and Stafford rolling, big time shootout coming, but gotta think a Romo turnover in the clutch makes it a 2 score game

Browns/Chiefs under 40: 2 of the best Ds in the league, both teams have put up sub 40 totals against other legit D's (the Nati and Texans respectively).

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."




Off the Court: J.J. Redick

One question we all ask ourselves daily is, "What does J.J. Redick do when he's not playing basketball?" Well, I finally have an answer - he is a watch aficionado.

The watch blog Hodinkee recently started a video series called "Talking Watches" and decided to have J.J. Redick as the subject of their second episode. Random? Yes. But actually really interesting to hear the famously introverted Dukie share his watch stories and describe his dream watch. While it's depressing to hear the host describe a $20K watch as a "value" timepiece, I actually enjoyed hearing J.J. describe his watches as "super cool" and "awesome," and also thought it was super cool when he talked about the watches he wore on draft day and when he signed with Lob City.

While not as entertaining as the first episode with John Mayer (where I'm sure they had to cut out his descriptions of all the actresses/models he bedded while wearing his various Rolexes), this is definitely worth a look.



NOTE: Not every NBA player has good taste in watches, as evidenced by LBJ and his ridiculously stupid new watch.

October 21, 2013

The World Series is Cheap!


This just up on deadspin: some bro just got a seat to game 1 at Fenway for 3 bucks, of course there were 3 extra bucks in service fees. Still a resonably decent deal no? Just goes to show that you need to know your math. Nerds = winning. Hashtag literally.

"Both teams played hard goodnight and godbless."

Goodnight Old School


In what many consider a surprise move, Jimmy Leyland is resigning from his post as Tigers' manager. Leyland has certainly been a controversial figure with the fan base over the past few years, and this last ALCS was not his best series. However you slice it though in his 8 years in the D the Tigers have made the playoffs 4 times and the world series twice. They have an elite core of players, one that many managers would stick around to coach just to pad their stats. Leyland left, however, as soon as he thought his fuel was running low, and actually told the team last month...giving them plenty of time to consider their plans for the future. Classy till the end. It may have been time, but there is nothing to celebrate here.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."

October 20, 2013

Root Cause Analysis Reveals Root Cause


In their fourth LCS appearance in eight years, the Detroit Tigers again failed to show the killer instinct of a champion.  A multitude of examples from the LCS exposed a team that was not ready to take the next step (of which I must outline a few for therapeutic purposes).  Looking deeper into the Tigers' woes in October reveals a troubling theme, one which they must address to bring a World Series Championship back to the D...

The pen:

The Tigers could not have asked for more from their starters.  It was a record breaking postseason for the Big Four – that’s right, I said it.  Meanwhile, the Tigers bullpen has improved – Smyly, Albuquerque, Veras, Benoit, and the occasional dose of Coke had flashes of shutdown ball (see Game 5, for example).  However, their penchant to give up timely hits to the opposition remains the Tigers Achilles heel in the later innings.  Which begs the question, were they used appropriately?  I’d argue no.  Manager Jim Leyland has a tendency to make moves based on sabermetrics rather than a feel for the game.  Too many times in this series I found myself asking, “Does this reliever really have a better chance of getting the next guy out compared to the current pitcher (starter or reliever)?”

(Un)timely mistakes by the Tigers leading to timely scoring by the Sox:

A ball that Miggy let through the 5-hole led to a big inning in the pivotal Game 5.  Later in the same game, while not a defensive error, Sanchez allowed what turned out to be the winning run score on a wild pitch.  In the close-out game with Detroit up 2-1, Iglesias (of all people to commit a costly error) bobbles a potentially inning ending double play ball.  We all know what happened next.

Missed opportunities:

I don’t care to look up the Tigers’ statistics with RISP in the LCS, but aside from Peralta’s game winning RBI in Game 1 and a big inning in Game 2 that was all for naught, the Tigers struggled to not leave runners on base (crushing Peavy in Game 4 doesn’t count – this Nerd doesn’t celebrate expected results).  The Tigers couldn’t get Verlander a run in Game 3, and in Game 5, could not put a big inning together to save their lives.  As the Tigers chipped away to within 2, the best hitter in baseball hit into a double play with runners on the corners and nobody out.  It brought the Tigers within 1 as the run scored from third, but they wouldn’t have another chance to complete the comeback.

Suicide on the bases:

With the Tigers salivating over a chance to break open a 2-1 Game 6 lead with runners at the corners and nobody out, Peralta grounded to second.  Two scenarios, and only two, should be possible: 1) Prince runs on contact, Pedroia throws home and the runners are safe at 1st and 2nd, or 2) Pedroia concedes the run and tries to turn two (unlikely in this one run game).  Never did I imagine a third scenario that became reality: Prince running slow enough (even looking at Pedroia half way for no reason) to allow Pedroia to tag VMart out on his way to 2nd and still get Prince caught between 3rd and home (lest we forget that Prince was caught wandering between 1st and 2nd earlier in the postseason).  Runners at the corners with nobody out vanished into a runner on 2nd with two out.  The Tigers would end their season with the 2 runs they had before the inning started.

A bullpen prone to giving up the key hit, defensive miscues, stranded runners, and base-running gaffes (nevermind Cabrera’s nagging injury and Prince’s off-the-field personal issues) was unsurprisingly not a winning formula.  So what is?  The Tigers have been to the LCS 4 times in Leyland’s 8-year tenure, advancing to the World Series twice.  With all that success, you would expect a team that expects to win every year, a team that is not surprised to be deep in the postseason.  Yet year after year, the Tigers don’t show the swagger of a team with the most dominant starting pitching and the best pure hitter in baseball.  Each October you see a Tigers team not much more confident than the 2006 group that reached the World Series, only to see their pitchers forgot how to throw to first base without giving a fan a souvenir.

The Tigers have made tremendous moves to stay this competitive since bringing in Leyland, and most, if not all, of that credit goes to Dave Dombrowski.  He has made key acquisitions and almost unthinkable trades to maintain a winning roster.  Unfortunately, he can’t give them a winning attitude.  That confidence, that chemistry and belief in one another comes from the clubhouse.

The Tigers need not look beyond their fellow Detroit sports teams for examples.  The Bad Boys of the late 80s; the defensive juggernaut that was the World Champion 2003-2004 Pistons, - a team that would be up by 20 and block your last shot to keep you from hitting 70; the Russian Five; the voracious Lions defensive line with the most feared received in Megatron on the other side.

This is what the Tigers are missing - the leader in the dugout around whom everyone rallies, the leader who unites and excites everyone on the team in both halves of the inning.  The Tigers are missing the face of their franchise.  Who is going to step up?  Martinez showed the most competitive fire from 1-9 in these playoffs, but he doesn’t play the field.  Jackson?  Hunter?  Carbrera?  Fielder?  Peralta?  Avila?  Infante?  Iglesias?  While extremely skilled, these guys don’t intimidate any dominant pitcher.  The Sox even had their way with Cabrera when it mattered most.

Whether the Tigers bring in players with personalities to match their talent, or make a change at the top with a manager who can inspire such moxie, they need to become less nice and less likeable while remaining the class organization they are.  They don’t need to be despicable and obnoxious like some teams and players around the league (Pedroia, ahem.  Cardinals, ahem).  But, they do need to instill fear, real FEAR, in their opponent.  Then they will dictate the feel of the game.  Then they will feel like they belong more than the other team.  Then they will take the next step.

And that’s my root cause analysis.

Tiger Tiger Burning Bright


Whats worse then losing the ALCS? Losing to the gross Duck Dynasty Saaaaaaaahwx. Hopefully the equally annoying Cardinals and Wacha-Flacha Flamethrower knock them down in history's lamest world series. Everyone keeps talking about how awesome the ALCS was, but despite the great pitching and exciting games Detroit was really out-classed from the beginning. There were several issues that doomed us in this series 1) big bats swinging small 2) poor defense 3) mediocre bullpen 4) and poor baserunning.

1) Miggy Pop's injury was a killer, his guaransheed RBI per game is the motor that makes the tigers go, and having that disappear really stressed the rest of the lineup. The fact that Miggy showed up and did what he did is a testament to how ridiculously good he is (at hitting). Prince also did not play up to his 20 mill a year price-tag. Luckily both issues: Miggy injury and Prince's presumed divorce-associated slump could be resolved next year.

2) Poor defense, no surprises here. We are a fat team that hits the ball hard. And adding the trade for perenial gold-glover to be Iglesias hardly made up for the slow fielding we had at several positions (1st, 2nd 3rd, and L). Its hard to know what the tigers plan to do about this, Jhonny and Infante will probably not get contracts. Jhonny on account of his cheating, and Infante on account of his presumed pay-rise and the stretched budget. Maybe Castellanos can finally step up and hit well enough to use his D in left. Maybe Illitch sells hella pizzas and we sign Cano? Probably not. But Nick Punto or Chase Utley could be aight? Maybe?

3) The patch-work bullpen went from crap to decent when benoit became the closer and Veras (the truth) was added to the roster. It also went from decent to aiiight when Smyly and Porcello slid over for the playoffs. However the effectiveness of an aiiiight bullpen was evident against the Saaaaaaaahwx (2 grand slams?). Lets face it, their Japanese shut-down comitte showed us what a real pen was like. Tigers will need to seek help here. Benoit is actually a free agent, and would be very hefty to bring back as just a setup man. Veras is restricted but will probably be resigned. No way socks don't lock up Koji. Rodney is a free agent! Or perhaps the Betancourt will be in session.

4) Finally base running...thats right baserunning. The fact that we are talking about this in the ALCS, shows that the Tigres are just not up to professional snuff when it comes to the small things. It's hard to really blame Leyland for it, but the headhunters will be calling for his job again. Maybe the Tigers just tneed to play high school ball again.

Well that was cathartic. Thanks for an awesome season. Some of the best starting pitching ever, and seeing the best hitter of a generation (a generation that includes Pujols) in his prime. Tigers are close...frustratingly close. Next year baby.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."

Tweet of the Day!



"Man oh man how I love my parents. If not for these 2 I would not be here today!!! "

~Chris Paul

Is there any more meaningful hashtag then #literally?

"Both teams played hard goodnight and godblesss."

October 18, 2013

"Free" Money: NFL Picks


A regular feature for this incarnation of the nerd will be sports betting picks (a new hobby for me since the 2011 nerd). Without being able to provide any evidence I am going to claim that my NFL picks record (which started last week) is 2-0. Those picks were:

1) Jags to cover -26.5 against Broncos &
2) Chargers to cover -1.5 against the Colts

The Jags pick is hardly controversial and is certainly where smart money was being played. For those who were too scared to touch this bet due to the talent disparity and massiveness of the line, the mitigating factors for me were: home field, the re-promotion of Chad Henne, and the return of Justin Blackmon (best name in football?). The potential emergence of the pass game via Henne->Blackmon+Shorts should make the running game a little easier to execute. And though it won't stop them from sucking balls it did prevent them from losing by 4 touchdowns at home against a team with no incentive to run up the score.

Bolts v Colts, harder to pick for sure, and more controversial given the likelihood of TY Hilton running all over the Charger's secondary. Bottom line is that the Chargers are resurgent (deuces Marty), with Rivers being Rivers again, Woodhead being Sproles, and Gates being Gates. They were also at home and playing the evening slot on the West against a team that traveled from the East. I won't bother you with the nerdiness of the circadian rythym, but if you extrapolate from this classic article you could say that the Chargers had a 60ish percent chance to win by 2 TDs and a 70ish percent chance to blow up the spread. Nerd domination.

This Weeks Picks:

1) KC to cover -6.5 at home against Houston
2) Giants to cover -3.5 at home against Vikings
3) Patriots to cover -3 away against the Jets

Houston is throwing first-time starter Case Keenum to the dogs by asking him to move the ball against the Chiefs. Sacks/Fumbles/INTs are imminent. Also Eric Berry (pictured) is the best defender in the NFL. Meanwhile the Vikings only win came against the 1-win Steelers, win number 2 is unlikely to come on the road even against the lowly giants. Something has gotta give for the once-proud giants and winning by a touchdown in week 7 at home against another bad team seems just as likely as anything else. The patriots pick is easier to defend, the spread is undoubtedly close due the results of that pitiful game earlier this year. That game was only close on account of dropped balls by the then inexperienced patriots receiving core. Brady has certainly gotten on page with with his wideouts since then, he is getting Gronkowski back this week, and Ridley has returned and appears to be healthy finally. Meanwhile the Jets still blow. I doubt the line will stay at 3.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."

Church of Defense


It's no secret that I love Jose Iglesias, but this play from last night's ALCS was ridiculous. The shift is on, but he somehow darts in from right of 2B and snags Ortiz's blooper with an almost perfunctory flash of the leather. The Cuban youngster is a guaransheed gold glove shortstop next year. 

Three team deadline trade:

Tigers get Iglesias from BoSox
BoSox get Peavey from WhiSox
WhiSox get Avisail Garcia from Tigers

good game

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."