"Free" Money: NFL Picks

A regular feature for this incarnation of the nerd will be sports betting picks (a new hobby for me since the 2011 nerd). Without being able to provide any evidence I am going to claim that my NFL picks record (which started last week) is 2-0. Those picks were:

1) Jags to cover -26.5 against Broncos &

2) Chargers to cover -1.5 against the Colts

The Jags pick is hardly controversial and is certainly where smart money was being played. For those who were too scared to touch this bet due to the talent disparity and massiveness of the line, the mitigating factors for me were: home field, the re-promotion of Chad Henne, and the return of Justin Blackmon (best name in football?). The potential emergence of the pass game via Henne->Blackmon+Shorts should make the running game a little easier to execute. And though it won't stop them from sucking balls it did prevent them from losing by 4 touchdowns at home against a team with no incentive to run up the score.

Bolts v Colts, harder to pick for sure, and more controversial given the likelihood of TY Hilton running all over the Charger's secondary. Bottom line is that the Chargers are resurgent (deuces Marty), with Rivers being Rivers again, Woodhead being Sproles, and Gates being Gates. They were also at home and playing the evening slot on the West against a team that traveled from the East. I won't bother you with the nerdiness of the circadian rythym, but if you extrapolate from this classic article you could say that the Chargers had a 60ish percent chance to win by 2 TDs and a 70ish percent chance to blow up the spread. Nerd domination.

This Weeks Picks:

1) KC to cover -6.5 at home against Houston

2) Giants to cover -3.5 at home against Vikings

3) Patriots to cover -3 away against the Jets

Houston is throwing first-time starter Case Keenum to the dogs by asking him to move the ball against the Chiefs. Sacks/Fumbles/INTs are imminent. Also Eric Berry (pictured) is the best defender in the NFL. Meanwhile the Vikings only win came against the 1-win Steelers, win number 2 is unlikely to come on the road even against the lowly giants. Something has gotta give for the once-proud giants and winning by a touchdown in week 7 at home against another bad team seems just as likely as anything else. The patriots pick is easier to defend, the spread is undoubtedly close due the results of that pitiful game earlier this year. That game was only close on account of dropped balls by the then inexperienced patriots receiving core. Brady has certainly gotten on page with with his wideouts since then, he is getting Gronkowski back this week, and Ridley has returned and appears to be healthy finally. Meanwhile the Jets still blow. I doubt the line will stay at 3.

"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."