October 20, 2013

Root Cause Analysis Reveals Root Cause


In their fourth LCS appearance in eight years, the Detroit Tigers again failed to show the killer instinct of a champion.  A multitude of examples from the LCS exposed a team that was not ready to take the next step (of which I must outline a few for therapeutic purposes).  Looking deeper into the Tigers' woes in October reveals a troubling theme, one which they must address to bring a World Series Championship back to the D...

The pen:

The Tigers could not have asked for more from their starters.  It was a record breaking postseason for the Big Four – that’s right, I said it.  Meanwhile, the Tigers bullpen has improved – Smyly, Albuquerque, Veras, Benoit, and the occasional dose of Coke had flashes of shutdown ball (see Game 5, for example).  However, their penchant to give up timely hits to the opposition remains the Tigers Achilles heel in the later innings.  Which begs the question, were they used appropriately?  I’d argue no.  Manager Jim Leyland has a tendency to make moves based on sabermetrics rather than a feel for the game.  Too many times in this series I found myself asking, “Does this reliever really have a better chance of getting the next guy out compared to the current pitcher (starter or reliever)?”

(Un)timely mistakes by the Tigers leading to timely scoring by the Sox:

A ball that Miggy let through the 5-hole led to a big inning in the pivotal Game 5.  Later in the same game, while not a defensive error, Sanchez allowed what turned out to be the winning run score on a wild pitch.  In the close-out game with Detroit up 2-1, Iglesias (of all people to commit a costly error) bobbles a potentially inning ending double play ball.  We all know what happened next.

Missed opportunities:

I don’t care to look up the Tigers’ statistics with RISP in the LCS, but aside from Peralta’s game winning RBI in Game 1 and a big inning in Game 2 that was all for naught, the Tigers struggled to not leave runners on base (crushing Peavy in Game 4 doesn’t count – this Nerd doesn’t celebrate expected results).  The Tigers couldn’t get Verlander a run in Game 3, and in Game 5, could not put a big inning together to save their lives.  As the Tigers chipped away to within 2, the best hitter in baseball hit into a double play with runners on the corners and nobody out.  It brought the Tigers within 1 as the run scored from third, but they wouldn’t have another chance to complete the comeback.

Suicide on the bases:

With the Tigers salivating over a chance to break open a 2-1 Game 6 lead with runners at the corners and nobody out, Peralta grounded to second.  Two scenarios, and only two, should be possible: 1) Prince runs on contact, Pedroia throws home and the runners are safe at 1st and 2nd, or 2) Pedroia concedes the run and tries to turn two (unlikely in this one run game).  Never did I imagine a third scenario that became reality: Prince running slow enough (even looking at Pedroia half way for no reason) to allow Pedroia to tag VMart out on his way to 2nd and still get Prince caught between 3rd and home (lest we forget that Prince was caught wandering between 1st and 2nd earlier in the postseason).  Runners at the corners with nobody out vanished into a runner on 2nd with two out.  The Tigers would end their season with the 2 runs they had before the inning started.

A bullpen prone to giving up the key hit, defensive miscues, stranded runners, and base-running gaffes (nevermind Cabrera’s nagging injury and Prince’s off-the-field personal issues) was unsurprisingly not a winning formula.  So what is?  The Tigers have been to the LCS 4 times in Leyland’s 8-year tenure, advancing to the World Series twice.  With all that success, you would expect a team that expects to win every year, a team that is not surprised to be deep in the postseason.  Yet year after year, the Tigers don’t show the swagger of a team with the most dominant starting pitching and the best pure hitter in baseball.  Each October you see a Tigers team not much more confident than the 2006 group that reached the World Series, only to see their pitchers forgot how to throw to first base without giving a fan a souvenir.

The Tigers have made tremendous moves to stay this competitive since bringing in Leyland, and most, if not all, of that credit goes to Dave Dombrowski.  He has made key acquisitions and almost unthinkable trades to maintain a winning roster.  Unfortunately, he can’t give them a winning attitude.  That confidence, that chemistry and belief in one another comes from the clubhouse.

The Tigers need not look beyond their fellow Detroit sports teams for examples.  The Bad Boys of the late 80s; the defensive juggernaut that was the World Champion 2003-2004 Pistons, - a team that would be up by 20 and block your last shot to keep you from hitting 70; the Russian Five; the voracious Lions defensive line with the most feared received in Megatron on the other side.

This is what the Tigers are missing - the leader in the dugout around whom everyone rallies, the leader who unites and excites everyone on the team in both halves of the inning.  The Tigers are missing the face of their franchise.  Who is going to step up?  Martinez showed the most competitive fire from 1-9 in these playoffs, but he doesn’t play the field.  Jackson?  Hunter?  Carbrera?  Fielder?  Peralta?  Avila?  Infante?  Iglesias?  While extremely skilled, these guys don’t intimidate any dominant pitcher.  The Sox even had their way with Cabrera when it mattered most.

Whether the Tigers bring in players with personalities to match their talent, or make a change at the top with a manager who can inspire such moxie, they need to become less nice and less likeable while remaining the class organization they are.  They don’t need to be despicable and obnoxious like some teams and players around the league (Pedroia, ahem.  Cardinals, ahem).  But, they do need to instill fear, real FEAR, in their opponent.  Then they will dictate the feel of the game.  Then they will feel like they belong more than the other team.  Then they will take the next step.

And that’s my root cause analysis.

No comments:

Post a Comment