Anatomy of an Upset?

Its no secret that the Magic have made a habit of being giant killers this postseason, and there is a reasonable level of curiosity about whether they can do it again. Certainly these playoffs have been a prime example of how important specific match ups can be, as in it doesn't matter how good you've been over a season and how good you've been in the playoffs, but how good your team is against its specific opponent. So how does Orlando stack up with the Lakeshow? Pretty well actually, Orlando beat the Lakers both times they faced off this season.


12/20/08 Amway Arena Orlando, Magic 106 Lakers 103

Jameer was huge that day dropping 27 (11/16) points and 5 dimes, Shard pitched in with 22 pts (3/8 from three), Hedo dropped 14 and 7, and D-Wight was noteworthy with 18 and 12 (12/15). As a team they went 12/30 from beyond the arc.

Kobe was Kobe with 41 points (14/31) and old man Fish played well too with 27 points(3/7 from 3). Problem for the Lakers this game was that Pau only went 11 and 7 (with one offensive rebound), and Odom, Bynum, Walton, Ariza etc... all did jack shit.

What can you tell from this? SURPRISE! If the magic have a balanced scoring attack and the Lakers don't give enough supporting scoring for Kobe the Magic will win. More specifically, D-Wight can neutralize much of Pau and Odom's o-rebounding ability especially since both of them have to come out and guard Shard leaving Bynum to get pushed around.

January 16, 2009 STAPLES Center Los Angeles, Magic 109 Lakers 103

Magic were completely balanced: 28 for Jameer, 25 for Dwight (20 boards 3 blocks), Shard 16, Turk 13, Lee with 12. Going 12/28 from three.

Kobe had a triple double: 28/11/13, Bynum and Gasol had 14 and 13, Lamar had 17, Vlad had 15 and fish had 9.A more balanced showing from the Lakers with the best sort of game you can hope for from Kobe and they still lost. D-Wight was way too much to handle inside and Jameer had his way once again.

So based off of those two games the Lakers don't have what it takes to match up with Orlando right? Not really, this series is vastly different from the other two games. In both of these games the Lakers were still starting either Vlad or Walton. Not that either player is a serious weakness but this means they weren't starting Ariza. Ariza is no joke as an offensive and defensive catalyst and his much improved stroke from three point land makes him a difference maker in this lineup (good job by Kupchak to call "1-2-3 no tradebacks" after he sent Evans and Cook to Orlando for Ariza). Additionally the presence of Farmar and Shannon Brown (neither of which played in either regular season game) makes the Lakeshow far less susceptible to the inconsistency of Fisher. The Lakers are also in the post Bynum re-injury era, and whether or not he starts, Odom is getting more minutes from Bynum than he was before. It has been revealed to us all how much Bynum still has to develop and having more Odom and less Bynum also makes the Lakers better. We also can't get away form the fact that Skip to my Lou has been serviceable but is no Jameer Nelson, and Jameer was the player the Lakers couldn't figure out. Unfortunately Jameer Nelson will not play in these finals.

All things considered, the Magic team from the regular season had clear advantage over the Lakers team from the regular season. But both teams are significantly different at this point than they were in January and the changes tip things in favor of the Lakers. The regular season games were close and these ones will be too, the Magic will always be a three point outburst away but the Lakers will hold them off. With all the intrigue and mystery this series will end up being disappointing: Lakers in 5.

"Both teams played hard...good night and godbless."