June 18, 2009
Living Under The Cap: Detroit Pistons
The slow and steady decline of DEEEEEEtroit-BAS-KET-Baaaaaaaall took a steep nosedive this year, precipitated largely by Joe D's much maligned Chauncey for AI trade. But the true test of that trade is not how each team did after the trade but whether the pistons can make themselves better in the long run with the money they are now able to spend because of the trade. I have often compared this kind of trade to that guy that got his arm stuck under a boulder for three days and eventually cut it off and hiked back to civilization: sure you could keep that arm that's been so clutch for you in the past and you could have a nice little time at the boulder, but that arm is on the way down and it is keeping you stuck at the boulder. You might as well get something for the arm while you can and let that young arm you have been growing get some time to develop his understanding of your offense. Get it?
In any case, the loss of AI and Sheed is some kind of massive simultaneous salary laden deuce that the stones will be dropping on July 1st. Additionally Hermann is likely to leave to play in spain, there is no pressure to resign McDyess (though most pistons fans would love to see him around), and if Kwame is dumb enough to take his player option there is no need to resign him either. The net effect? The Pistons will have at least 20 million to use on free agents without using any exceptions.
Now the rumors are the fun part...its already been reported in the chicago sun and discussed on PTI that the pistons have offered Heir Gordon a multi-year 11 mill per year deal. Which is kind of crazy unless you believe the additional rumors that the pistons are also shopping Rip. There are mixed feeling on the Detroit message boards but if both of those moves happen I think it would be a big upgrade (except on defense). Also if the Rip for Gordon move happens, it would have no net cap effect and the pistons would still have all of the 20 mill to drop. I would expect them to make a hard run at boozer with a chunk of that money, and as that early report stated the Pistons and Nets are the teams boozer is most likely to go to. The Nets, however, however would require a sign and trade. If it does happen, the Stones would still be sitting pretty with probably 6-7 million left and having used no exceptions. They could even used some of that cap space to sign Birdman, a newage Rodman baby! And the rest of the money + the exceptions could then be sent towards McDyess and other role playing vets (the brevin knights, eddie houses of the world). Basically I really don't think this team should hold onto the money and wait for the theoretically more fruitful summer of 2010. If they age, decline, and suck for another year no one will want to come to the D. If they have to settle for A- free agent talent then they might as well do it now when they have the advantage of being one of the only teams with cap room to wield.
Well that was fun, and basically complete guesswork resulting in a Stuckey, Gordon, Tayshaun, Boozer, Birdman starting lineup. Which would be the weirdest chimera lineup ever. The age of Rodney Stuckey aka Chief Lightening First Step aka Flashlight has begun. Let the lord of chaos rule!
"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."
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That speculative lineup is so weird, I can't even think of what decile of wins it would produce. I guess maybe high 40s? Low 50s? Maybe someone who is less lazy than me can go to Wages of Wins site and look up all their Wins Produced and add em up.
ReplyDeleteAlso...don't they need a PG? (don't say Stuckey)
Sorry dude, Stuckey
ReplyDelete...and a center?
ReplyDeleteno center dude, its the future: sabermetrics + triangle offense
ReplyDeletewell i ran the numbers, assuming all 4 starters play 35 min x/c birdman playing 30 min, and using last yrs production, plus assuming the bench collectively is slightly below an avg nba player, you get ~55 wins.
ReplyDeletediscuss.
sabermetrics would not tell you to sign gordon, he is < average nba player by production. i have my beefs w/ the statistical method of nba analysis but that's the facts if you do use that method.
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