So Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson in exchange for Rafer Alston , Tony Battie, and Courtney Lee. BAM! Knee-jerk reaction here is basically, wow that was fun while it lasted Orlando. At face value the deal is basically trading a productive rookie with potential who started the entire playoffs and a veteran pointguard willing to stay and backup your younger point man in exchange for a 32- year-old fading star whose commitment to and interest in basketball has been questioned for the past 6 or 7 years. Sweet deal!But as much as we like to point out how much smarter we are than every sports GM and how obviously wrong every deal is, this one may not reek as badly as we think. All indications from the timing of the opt out to the motivation of the trade indicate that Hedo is looking to jump up to the 10 mill a season bracket and the magic are looking protect themselves in case they can't resign him. So basically the Magic were in the desperate position of having to replenish their backcourt scoring or take a step back next year. VC does do exactly that, this past season (likely his worst in a long time) he posted 21 ppg 5 assists 5 rebounds shooting .437 from the field. Whereas Hedo posted 16.8 ppg 5 assists 5 rebounds shooting .413 from the field. One could definitely make the argument that even a declining VC not only replaces Hedo's production but surpasses it. Hedo did bring certain intangibles, however, he was a closer and they used him to run the offense (Turkish Magic). VC will not have to run the offense as he is incapabale of doing so and he will benefit from a healthy Jameer who will be more than capable of running things, can VC be a closer again? My guess is probably not a very good one, but playing on a competitive team with exciting players may actually motivate him to care about basketball again for a year or two.
But even considering these drawbacks there is still some value in this deal for Orlando, sure Lee was a good young player and that showed poise in a deep playoff run. But its easy to show poise when your expected contribution is 8 ppg, 1 assist, and 1 rebound. He definitely has potential but he is not the kind of grade A prospect that you expect to take over your backcourt in 3 years. And should therefore by no means be untouchable (even if he has an ubelievable ammount of face mask for a player at his level). Taking on VC's contract puts the Magic in the luxury without resigning Hedo or Gortat. Turkish delight is gone Vinsanity is in, and the Magic are stuck with their chimera roster for atleast 2 more seasons. Who knows maybe it will be tight.
"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."
Yeah. I was wondering when you'd include the bit about Courtney Lee taking up way too much cap space in terms of facemask. Excess facemask that early in the career results in a fluxery tax that no team can afford in this flagging economy. But "nevermind that shit." [name the movie]
ReplyDeleteI think this trade is absolute fail for the Magic. Sure, the numbers seem ample jangle town for VC, and sure he will likely be able to contribute w/ Jameer, but let's remember something about off-season deals: they allow GMs and fans ample time to crunch the fantasy numbers. From a fantasy team perspective, this trade is GREAT for the magic. But that's just it, basketball games aren't won by fantasy stat lines. I doubt VC will be able to truly contribute to a solvent offensive tone in Orlando. I mean, do you think he's going to share the rock and actually play disciplined ball? He never has in his career, even when he played for semi-decent teams. So what makes us think he will MAGIC-ally change now? Even Michelle Obama tells us that people don't change THAT much.
Basically this is another (over)reactionary move that smells good initially but doesn't pass the taste test when push comes to shove during the season. The same would be true if the Lakers were to acquire some sort of Artest type of player. No one wants to acquire a loser, and VC is a proven loser throughout his career.
Though he does make some sick dunks. And his face:facemask ration is infinity. So that's good.
I also think that taking their chances with VC over the-most-ugliest-man-in-the-universe (Hedo) is a bad idea.
ReplyDelete"I don't normally make trade deals that sabotage any chance of a title next year. But when I do, I prefer Vince Carter."
I don't think anyone disagrees with your assessment of VC's worth. And we would all agree that the magic's best move was to resign hedo and do nothing else.Thing is you have to think about this trade in the context of the magic knowing they were going to lose hedo. Turkish delight already turned down their extension offer so the magic acted under the presumption that he would walk for greener pastures. Knowing this they acted quickly to replenish their backcourt. Questionmarks for VC's character? yes. Would the magic be better off with Hedo isnstead? Yes. But considering that mr delight is gone would they be better off without this trade? Maybe. But I don't think so.
ReplyDeleteValid points. Considering your points and the buzz on ESPN, it does seem as though this was the best way to counteract a sure move-out by Hedo.
ReplyDeleteOne wonders whether the east has a true powerhouse coming up this year. Sure, Cleveland and Orlando become more intriguing, but it is far from certain that either is better. Furthermore, Boston's chances of regaining its mojo hinge on KG getting better and Rondo growing up/learning how to shoot/not having any more bitch fights with Danny Ainge, via his agent.
I haven't watched enough Vinsanity to really weigh in, since the teams he has played on are generally unwatchable. I do know that in the Michael Lewis NYT "Moneybasketball" profile of the Rockets (which laughably focused on Shane "Battier!" Battier, but was still interesting), they were pretty tight lipped about their internal stat geek analyses, but did reveal that Vince Carter came out as one of the best players in the league in their analysis. So...that's really all I can add to this discussion. I do think the Magic are still the favorites to repeat out of the East if Mouth Guard can regain his previous form.
ReplyDeleteAlso, I think there is a 70% chance that Rondo will fulfill all of our fantasies and swipe out Nelson's mouth guard at some point if they play each other. Seems like something he would do, and with his freak arms he is perfectly positioned to deliver.
ReplyDeleteOh also, don't sleep on Ryan Anderson, he was a borderline fantasy pickup last year, the guy will be a contributor for the Fagic.
ReplyDeletethats truth about Ryan Anderson, he could be a player man
ReplyDeleteHow did hedo go from being underrated to overrated so quickly, completely bypassing adequately rated? I think vince will, without question, be a better player for the magic than hedo was. There might be a bit of an adjustment period, but vince can do everything hedo can, but slightly better. The only real problem is the awfulness of his contract.
ReplyDeleteAs far as character and such go, he coexisted pretty well with Devin Harris last season. For the first time in his career, he wasn't really the number 1 scoring option on his team and he seemed to handle it fine. Playing in his hometown and for a title contender may give him that much more fuel.