Though this will definitely be an interesting offseason for our most blogged about sports, all teams will be operating under the cloud of oppressive salary cap restrictions (hard economic times/golden parachute/main street-wall street/bailout stimulus etc). So I figured who other than the sporting nerd would bring you an in-depth team by team analysis of salary cap, economic, and free agent issues. The defending champs had an early exit, but in theory have plenty to look forward to: Perkins and Baby (the ticket stub) developed in KG's absence and Rondo has shown that he has skills. With the imminent return of The Whole Ticket the Celtrons have nothing to worry about. Right?
Well right now, without signing any of their own free agents, the celtics are 2 million into the luxury tax. That means they pay a dollar to the league for each dollar they expend over the hard cap (100% tax is the suck). So where does that leave them? Eddie House, MD has already expressed that he will take his early termination option (in red), which by definition means he is looking for more. You think the Celts would go deeper into the luxury to sign House, MD...? So assuming House comes off the books completely the celts will be 300,000 under the hard cap, and will need to resign Big Baby and Leon Powe. Both of whom will expect to make at least more than Brian Scalabrini, likely somewhere in the 4-5.8 million range. So signing both of them would put them 10 million in the luxury, assuming they let Starbury walk. That's a price that's probably worth paying for a team that could win now.
However, this would also completely hamper them next year when they have to resign Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo. Sure you can expect Allen's salary to come down from 20 million (haha they are paying ray allen 20 million), but he got his title and he is not going to stick around for a mid-level exception. Expect him to want at least 15-16 million, a price that would leave the Celtics unable to compete for their young restricted free agent Rondo. What all this points to is that the rumors about the celts shopping Allen make sense. Moving his contract would give them all the flexibility they need to sign rondo etc.. and if they can get a quality player and/or a lottery pick in return they likely won't miss a beat. What's really interesting are the rumors that the Celts would be happy to package Rondo in an Allen deal. Apparently, despite the fact that Rondo is young and developing nicely, Doc and Ainge don't like him at all. Doc even told Rondo directly:"Do you know your teammates hate playing with you? ... The point guard has to be the guy that brings energy to the team. You can't be the guy that sucks it away. Your moodiness is affecting us."
Oof! So even though moving Allen would give them the flexibility to keep Rondo the Celts may still look to move both players. Weird. Also, this is all completely obscured by the fact that Paul Pierce aka the Truth has an early termination option for next year too! What a mess, LET THE RAMPANT SPECULATION BEGIN!!!
"Both teams played hard...goodnight and godbless."
Remember that the C's also have the mid level exepmtion that they could spend to get a quality body in for a push for another title next year. I think they have to find a way to keep their core of young players (Powe, Davis, Rondo, and Perkins) around so that the team doesnt fall off the face of the earth when the big three finally die.
ReplyDeleteoh and they pay Scalabrine $3+ million, WTF
ReplyDeleteScalabrine is employed/paid under the Celtics' Irish-looking-persons-affirmative-action initiative. That can be the only explanation for him making 3.5 million more than he's worth.
ReplyDeletePowe, Davis, Rondo, and Perkins is a core in NBDL maybe...
ReplyDeleteThat Rondo line is old, it's from his rookie year I think.
But, if he can't learn to shoot I don't see him being an untouchable player who they should never trade. But then, of the four "young core" players he is the only bonafide championship contributor, i.e. only one potentially worth star cash in my mind.
It's all down to whether KG is back in true form next year and you can go for another ring, if not they'd be dumb not to sell high on Ray Ray (but not sure what they'd get, is there really a team out there that is one great but declining $20M shooter away from beating the Lake Show in 2010?).
I thought for sure Scalabrine got paid in headbands
they are eligible for the mid level exception but each dollar they pay to who they sign will be a dollar more in luxury, once you are in the luxury it is the suck
ReplyDeletealso its hard for me to find out for sure but I think Brap is right, that Rondo line might be one from a few years ago...I was fooled by yesterday's hoopsworld article that quoted it out of context. Apologies ~The Sporting Nerd
ReplyDeleteRondo played really well in the playoffs... he was much better than I thought he could be (as much as I hate to admit it). Dude almost averaged a triple-double a game: 16+ ppg, 9+ rpg, 9+ apg... that's redickulous!
ReplyDeleteI think they should definitely try to keep Powe, Davis, and Perkins IF the price is right. They are excellent role players. For backup frontcourt players, you wish for the toughness and power that they play with. None of those players has nearly enough talent to be worth decent money though. I wouldn't exceed an upper bound of $5-$6 million for any of them.